Baccarat: The Known Card

All it takes to crush baccarat is for the AP to know the exact value and location of one card in the shoe. For many years, APs have used various methods to gain this microscopic amount of information and have used it to beat casinos around the world for millions.

In case you are dubious, there is at least one way the AP can know a card: if the dealing procedure exposes the bottom card of the shoe during the cut card placement. If the AP can also count the number of cards in the “cut-offs”, then the AP will be able to follow the exposed card through the shoe. One procedure that can lead to this is known as the “ribbon spread.” Bill Zender explains the ribbon spread as follows: 17

The dealer will remove approximately 20 to 25 cards from the front of the eight decks following the cut. The dealer will spread the card face down on the layout, and starting from the dealer’s left count each card. Once the dealer locates the 14-th card, he/she places the plastic cut card between the 14-th and 15-th. The entire spread of card are picked up in order and placed behind the eight decks.

If the dealer exposes the bottom card after the 20-to-25 cards are temporarily removed, and the AP gets an exact count of the number of cards removed, then the exposed card can later be located. The AP simply counts the cards as they are dealt from the shoe and waits until his card comes into the six-card window for the next round. It may take over an hour of waiting for that card to come out, but the potential edge is worth it. A table maximum wager when the known card is due will yield a hefty profit.

If the AP knows one of the next six cards in the shoe, then he gains the edge by wagering on the side, Player or Banker, that the card favors.18 The edges obtainable from a known card are as follows:

• Knowledge of card 1 or 3 (Player card): 6.765%
• Knowledge of card 2 or 4 (Banker card): 6.406%
• Knowledge of card 5: 8.973%
• Knowledge of card 6: 9.098%

The edges listed above apply to card 5 and 6 regardless if the card is actually used in the hand.

The following table gives the edge by the card the AP has identified (under the “EV” column). This table shows that the average edge the AP will have on a hand where there is a known card is 7.402%. As expected, the most valuable card to know is the 9. Overall, the least valuable card to know is a 2.

The following table gives basic “known card” strategy for baccarat:

Note that there are four situations when the AP cannot gain an edge: (card = 5, position = 2 or 4), (card = 8, position = 5), (card = 2, position = 6).

The following table gives the AP’s edge for each possible situation:

To fully understand this, it is worthwhile to consider an example.

Suppose a “4” is known to be the fifth card in the shoe. This card may or may not be needed in the next hand. If it isn’t used, then the hand ended with either a natural, or a total of 6/6, 6/7, 7/6 or 7/7. (In this case, the 4 becomes the first card in the next hand). On the other hand, if the 4 is used, then most likely it will be dealt to the Player hand. In this case, the 4 is a very powerful card to improve the Player hand.  Indeed, it significantly improves every Player drawing hand. By examining the tables above, you can see that if a “4” is in the fifth position, then the AP should wager on Player. In this case, he will have an 18.316% edge over the house on that wager. Wow!

APs will continue to look for opportunities to beat baccarat. But with a little care, the problem of the “known card” will not be one of them.