A Message to Advantage Players

Dear AP’s,

If you contact me to analyze a game and I agree to take on the project, I will be posting my results in public here. In other words, I do not do any confidential work for AP’s. Please take this into consideration before contacting me.



Card Counting the Blazing 7’s and Heavenly 9’s Baccarat Side Bets

I was recently made aware of the collection of side bets known as “5 Treasures Baccarat” after an email from a reader. A quick search showed that Mike at WizardofOdds.com had already done the combinatorial analysis: here.

One of the five side bets is the well known Dragon 7 (Banker winning three card 7 pays 40-to-1) which is rebranded as the Fortune 7. Another one is the Panda 8 (Player winning three card 8 pays 25-to-1) which has been rebranded as the Golden 8. I have previously analyzed both of these.

In this post, I am going to look at two new side bets found in 5 Treasures Baccarat, Blazing 7’s and Heavenly 9’s.

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Card Counting the Bad Beat Baccarat Side Bet: Natural 9 beats Natural 8

Well, you knew it was going to happen sooner or later, that I would analyze another AP opportunity. A reader made a comment on one of my YouTube videos, saying

“I’m a pit boss, been in the industry about 20 years. Had some success counting blackjack. Recently I’ve been thinking about computer perfect blackjack play at online casinos. Another exploit that came to my attention recently is the casino I work at was offering bad beat baccarat. A young Asian couple were counting to beat nat 9 over nat 8 (pays 50:1). I’ve been looking for the system they used but haven’t had much luck. I’ve seen a few systems for beating similar bets, but not specifically nat 9over nat 8. Anyone have help to offer?” Continue reading

Optimal Strategy for Baccarat with Eliot Jacobson on Casino.com

My life in the casino world continues. I was asked to write articles or have articles ghost written for me, anything to have my name attached to the article. In the end I gave two free interviews and insisted they quote me 100%. This is the result:

Optimal Strategy for Baccarat with Eliot Jacobson

Announcing: Baccarat UR Way Egalite Edge Calculator

Perhaps the single most vulnerable (and available) baccarat side bet, after the Pairs bet, is the UR Way Egalite bet. As every child knows, you can’t count the Tie bet for enough profit to make it worthwhile. However, when you divide that Tie bet into 10 separate Tie bets (Tie on 0, Tie on 1, and so on …), then each “Tie on x” can be profitably counted.  Taken together (a team approach), the UR Way Egalite side bet can be crushed. I have an article on this side bet over at 888, here is the link:

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Lifetime Achievement Award from the WGPC

This week I was in Las Vegas (for the first time since 2016) to receive a Lifetime Achievement Award, presented to me by The World Game Protection Conference.

Although I’ve hardly spent a lifetime working in the casino industry, I did have a good 14 years pretty much being a full-time compulsive trouble maker and bridge burner (and many years before that as an advantage player).  You can find some of my work on this website. There were also several hundred individual projects, consulting gigs, conferences, seminars, keynotes, magazine articles, interviews and other things I did during those 14 years.  I am grateful that my brief lifetime in the casino industry made a difference and I am very honored to be recognized for this body of work.

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