Match Play 101 for Casinos

Match play has been around for years as a staple of marketing used to attract table game play. Nevertheless, there are still a number of misunderstandings and misconceptions about its value, its use, and its vulnerabilities. In light of the explosion of free play for slots, there is pressure to issue more match play to keep up. Just as determining the cost of free play is a challenge, match play coupons are also a source of complicated and important questions.

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Download Statistical Baccarat Analyzer (SBA)

I am very pleased to announce that you no longer need to email me to get a copy of SBA.  You can download the latest version here: CLICK HERE FOR SBA 1.5

Here is a screenshot — click on it to enlarge. A video explanation of this spreadsheet can be viewed HERE. 

Note: this spreadsheet requires Excel 2007 or later to run.


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Statistical Baccarat Analyzer — Now Available


During my live session yesterday someone mentioned in chat that an Excel spreadsheet was available that could do real-time baccarat calculations. I had been thinking of creating a spreadsheet like this. The point of the spreadsheet is that a player or surveillance could track the shoe and compute the exact theoretical edges prior to any hand in the shoe based on the cards that had previously come out.

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YouTube Live — Exploring Baccarat Websites, Books and other Media


I spent an hour surfing the web in an effort to find and discuss different methods of beating baccarat. Included are betting systems, money management, patterns, trends and other mythological methods. Actual methods of beating baccarat are discussed as well.

This was a live broadcast, 09-23-2020.

A New Research Paper on the d’Alembert Progression

It is not often that I recommend a research paper on voodoo gambling ideas, especially a paper on progressions.  Then again, it is very rare for a quality research paper on the topic to be written.  Last November (2019), I visited Rutgers University as an invited speaker in their probability and statistics seminar.  During the visit, I met the authors of this paper, professors Harry Crane and Glenn Shafer.  They are first-rate scholars and are among the very few who are finding original angles on ancient ideas. After reading this paper, I felt it was important to pass it along. The paper I am recommending is:

“Risk is random: The magic of the d’Alembert”

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Dealing in an iDeal World

In protecting against hole-card play on casino card games, there are many different elements that the casino needs to have in place. Among these are:

Safe Procedures
  1. A dealing procedure focused on hole-card protection.
  2. A method of taking cards out of the shuffler that is focused on hole-card protection.
  3. An ergonomic location for the shuffler so that it is physically easy and natural to protect the hole-card.
  4. Attention to the burn card and the cut.
  5. Ongoing reminders to the dealers about hole-card protection.  Hopefully, prior to each shift.
  6. Staff training to underscore which games are especially vulnerable.
  7. Eyes on the games, especially watching out for “lucky idiots.”  This includes the dealer, pit staff and surveillance.
  8. Ongoing research by at least one team member to keep up to date on advanced advantage play against your games.

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