Tag Archives: progression

YouTube Live — Exploring Baccarat Websites, Books and other Media


I spent an hour surfing the web in an effort to find and discuss different methods of beating baccarat. Included are betting systems, money management, patterns, trends and other mythological methods. Actual methods of beating baccarat are discussed as well.

This was a live broadcast, 09-23-2020.

A New Research Paper on the d’Alembert Progression

It is not often that I recommend a research paper on voodoo gambling ideas, especially a paper on progressions.  Then again, it is very rare for a quality research paper on the topic to be written.  Last November (2019), I visited Rutgers University as an invited speaker in their probability and statistics seminar.  During the visit, I met the authors of this paper, professors Harry Crane and Glenn Shafer.  They are first-rate scholars and are among the very few who are finding original angles on ancient ideas. After reading this paper, I felt it was important to pass it along. The paper I am recommending is:

“Risk is random: The magic of the d’Alembert”

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The Big Bet in Blackjack

A player seated at a blackjack table suddenly places a large bet and the dealer calls out “cheques play!”  The skill level of the player needs to be established.   The usual way to do this is to study the player’s bets and play to determine if he is counting cards.  If so, appropriate actions may be taken against the player.  However, there are many ways to beat blackjack that have nothing to do with card counting.  Among these are shuffle tracking, edge sorting, collusion, card marking and hole-card play.  None of these players will be detected by the usual approach.

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Baccarat Simulation Spreadsheets

I am writing this post to make several Excel spreadsheets easily available for you to download.  Each of these works the same way.  Once you open the spreadsheet, to run a new simulation, you have two easy choices:

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Betting Systems and the House Edge

There is no mystery to the success of casinos.  People place wagers on games that have a built in house edge.  The players win or lose the individual bets, but that’s of no concern to the management.  The only concern is that players continue pumping wagers through the system.  In this case, the large variance of individual bets evens out and the house earns according to the following basic equation:

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