Category Archives: Casino Management

Card Counting the Bad Beat Baccarat Side Bet: Natural 9 beats Natural 8

Well, you knew it was going to happen sooner or later, that I would analyze another AP opportunity. A reader made a comment on one of my YouTube videos, saying

“I’m a pit boss, been in the industry about 20 years. Had some success counting blackjack. Recently I’ve been thinking about computer perfect blackjack play at online casinos. Another exploit that came to my attention recently is the casino I work at was offering bad beat baccarat. A young Asian couple were counting to beat nat 9 over nat 8 (pays 50:1). I’ve been looking for the system they used but haven’t had much luck. I’ve seen a few systems for beating similar bets, but not specifically nat 9over nat 8. Anyone have help to offer?” Continue reading

Lifetime Achievement Award from the WGPC

This week I was in Las Vegas (for the first time since 2016) to receive a Lifetime Achievement Award, presented to me by The World Game Protection Conference.

Although I’ve hardly spent a lifetime working in the casino industry, I did have a good 14 years pretty much being a full-time compulsive trouble maker and bridge burner (and many years before that as an advantage player).  You can find some of my work on this website. There were also several hundred individual projects, consulting gigs, conferences, seminars, keynotes, magazine articles, interviews and other things I did during those 14 years.  I am grateful that my brief lifetime in the casino industry made a difference and I am very honored to be recognized for this body of work.

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Announcing: Baccarat Edge Calculator

I decided to create a very simple calculator to focus on the one thing players and casino surveillance care about the most — what is the edge when a player makes a wager. And so I give you, the Baccarat Edge Calculator:

This is an Excel spreadsheet that uses macros.  You can use this spreadsheet for real-time analysis of a shoe in progress, or you can use it to analyze a shoe after-the-fact.  It covers all the most popular baccarat variations as well as the most common side bets.  Full instructions and information is available in the spreadsheet to make it easy to understand and easy to use.

A full-featured spreadsheet that allows player analysis is also available, see the previously shared Baccarat Risk Analyzer .


Announcing: Statistical Blackjack Side Bet Analyzer

I am announcing the release of a new statistical blackjack side bet analysis VBA Excel spreadsheet. You can find it in the downloads section of this blog, or just CLICK HERE.

This spreadsheet allows the user to compute the house edge for any pay table, any number of decks for a number of popular blackjack side bets.  In addition, this spreadsheet allows the user to input a custom shoe composition or to follow the play of a shoe in real-time and get updated edges after each hand.  This facilitates computation of EORs to develop counting systems, assists online play and also allows surveillance to assess if a player is using a system to get an edge.

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Baccarat Risk Analyzer — Full Release

Exciting news! I have completed what I consider to be the first “full release” of the Statistical Baccarat Analyzer and Baccarat Shoe Risk Analysis spreadsheets. You can download the latest version here:

DOWNLOAD Baccarat Risk Analysis Spreadsheet

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Baccarat Simulation Spreadsheets

I am writing this post to make several Excel spreadsheets easily available for you to download.  Each of these works the same way.  Once you open the spreadsheet, to run a new simulation, you have two easy choices:

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