Baccarat Risk Analyzer — Full Release

Exciting news! I have completed what I consider to be the first “full release” of the Statistical Baccarat Analyzer and Baccarat Shoe Risk Analysis spreadsheets. You can download the latest version here:

DOWNLOAD Baccarat Risk Analysis Spreadsheet

Statistical Baccarat Analyzer

The Statistical Baccarat Analyzer (SBA) allows computation of the house edge for a variety of common baccarat wagers with any shoe composition.  This can be accessed by clicking on the “SBA” tab. The user can either input the exact distribution of the shoe, or the user can follow the shoe in real-time by clicking on buttons as cards are dealt to get the updated house edge after each coup.

Here is a screen capture (click on image to enlarge):

Statistical Baccarat Analyzer
Baccarat Shoe Risk Analysis

The main part of this spreadsheet consists of a tool to evaluate a baccarat shoe after it has been played for possible advantage play or cheating.  This is known as the “Baccarat Shoe Risk Analysis” (BSRA) spreadsheet.  It can be accessed by clicking on the Risk (5% commission baccarat) or Risk_NC (non-commission baccarat) tab.

The user has to input the exact cards from each round and the exact wagers made by the player.  The cards can sometimes be accessed via a data file from a smart shoe, but the wagers almost certainly have to be entered by hand.  This sheet allows simultaneous wagers on (Banker and Tie) or (Player and Tie) but it does not permit offsetting (Banker and Player) wagers on the same hand.

Some of the risk metrics will show in real-time as coups are entered.  Others, like the t-Win, will need the Hand-by-Hand Risk macro to be run in order to display. By request, this sheet also attempts to measure shoe-trend following, though this is a rough metric, at best.  This sheet does not follow side bets.  That task is handled by the SBA.

Here are screen captures (click on image to enlarge):

Commission Baccarat
Non-Commission Baccarat

Please download these and give them a try.  If you find any bugs, please write to me directly or leave a comment.

Note that these spreadsheets have a (U) Unlicense disclaimer.  You are welcome to modify these as you like for your own use.  This spreadsheet is distributed AS-IS without guarantees of any type for fitness of use for any purpose.

At this time I am not taking suggestions for further improvements.