I am very pleased to announce that you no longer need to email me to get a copy of SBA. You can download the latest version here: CLICK HERE FOR SBA 1.5
Here is a screenshot — click on it to enlarge. A video explanation of this spreadsheet can be viewed HERE.
Note: this spreadsheet requires Excel 2007 or later to run.
The game of baccarat is the most lucrative and commonly played casino game internationally. It is typically played from an eight-deck shoe, with from 4 to 6 cards being played each round. A shoe typically consists of between 75 and 85 coups (hands). The base wagers available to the gambler are the “Player” and “Banker” bets, which are even money wagers, with the “Banker” wager charging a 5% commission (properly speaking, Banker pays 19:20). There are some common non-commission variants, including the following:
- Banker winning 6 pays 1:2
- Banker winning three card seven is a push
This paper assumes that the reader is familiar with the rules and operation of the base game.
The Tie bet has two common payouts, either 8-to-1 or 9-to-1. The 8-to-1 payout is far more common than the 9-to-1 payout, however both are seen.
The most common side bet is the so-called “Pairs” or “Lucky Pairs” bet. The gambler can wager on either a Player pair or Banker pair. This wager wins if the first two cards dealt to that position are a pair. This side bet typically pays 11-to-1.
Beyond the Player/Banker/Tie/Pair bets, there are a number of proprietary side bets. These side bets are constantly being created, but few have gained long-term or wide-spread popularity. It would be a herculean task to attempt to discuss or implement the library of proprietary side bets. As of this writing, we include only two such wagers, described as following:
- Dragon 7 (aka Fortune 7 and others). This side bet pays 40-to-1 if the Banker hand wins with a three-card total of 7.
- Panda 8. This side bet pays 25-to-1 if the Player hand wins with a three-card total of 8.
Origins of the Statistical Baccarat Analyzer
In 2011, I noted there was an Android App that allowed the player to input the cards in real time in a casino. By pushing a button, this App would then compute the house edge for the Player, Banker and Tie bets. This App had icons and language in Chinese. I noted that the some of the results it output were incorrect. Nevertheless, this App demonstrated that there was value in creating such a product.
In 2012, I was provided with a photograph of a Chinese device that allowed real-time covert computations of the edge for various baccarat wagers. I was told that this device sold for about $200 (US) on the black market in China. I has not verified the functionality of this device or its cost.
Shortly after observing this device, I produced a simple tracking spreadsheet that allowed for real-time analysis of the Pairs bet. This spreadsheet is available on this website.
In 2013 at the Global Gaming Expo, I noted that a company was selling a product that allowed real-time tracking of the house edge for a variety of baccarat wagers and side bets. This was a professional stand-alone product, clearly meant for surveillance teams.
In April 2020, I became aware of a new Android App that produced accurate computational results for the base wagers in baccarat along with the Pair bet. This App required the user purchase credits to run each computation. In practical terms, the expense demanded by this App would greatly outweigh any possible benefit the user might ever get.
In September 2020, I was given second-hand information that an Excel spreadsheet existed that did a number of different baccarat computations. I was told that this spreadsheet cost $1500. This information has not been verified.
In September 2020, in the midst of the COVID crisis, I decided to create a very simple Excel macro spreadsheet that would accomplish many of the tasks of these observed products. This product is explicitly designed to be free for educational use. There is not and never will be a charge or fee associated with downloading, inspecting or using this spreadsheet.
1.1, released 20.09.24
- Banker, with 5% commission
- Banker, non-commission variant with winning 6 paying 1:2
- Tie, paying 8-to-1
- Tie, paying 9-to-1
- Dragon 7 (aka Fortune 7) side bet, paying 40-to-1 for a winning Banker three-card total of 7.
1.5, released 20.09.26
- Minor font and layout modifications.
- Banker, non-commission variant with winning three-card total of 7 being a push.
- Panda 8 side bet, paying 25-to-1 for a winning Player three-card total of 8.