I am writing this post to make several Excel spreadsheets easily available for you to download. Each of these works the same way. Once you open the spreadsheet, to run a new simulation, you have two easy choices:
- Click on “Save” or
- Type a number into any empty cell and hit “Enter”
The first simulation shows the profit/loss results from 1000 shoes of baccarat, where the player is making a $100 wager on “Player” every hand. These results are distributed into an approximately normal curve. This simulation shows the wide variation in win/loss results that individual shoes can generate. A separate page shows the results from the “Tie” bet.
Here is the Excel spreadsheet: Baccarat_MC_Sim
The second simulation shows the cumulative effect of playing 1000 shoes, making a flat $100 wager on Player every hand. This represents a year to a lifetime of play for the typical player. Additional curves showing the t-Win, as well as the 1st, 2nd and 3rd standard deviations are included. The key point here is to show that “regression to the mean” does NOT mean that the player’s results should converge to the player’s t-Win.
Here is the Excel spreadsheet: Baccarat_MC_Sim_2
The third simulation is similar to the second given above, except instead of simulation 1000 shoes, only 50 shoes are shown. This gives realistic results for what a player might experience on a single extended baccarat trip. As above, additional curves showing the t-Win, as well as the 1st, 2nd and 3rd standard deviations are included.
Here is the Excel spreadsheet: Baccarat_MC_Sim_50_Shoes
This simulation shows two different betting strategies. The first is a classical martingale (double up after a loss), starting with a $100 Player bet. The second shows the results if the player follows the strategy of only wagering after two consecutive Player wins, in which case the wager is $100 on Player. The t-Win is also shown. The key lesson here is that neither of these systems dents the house edge.
Here is the Excel spreadsheet: Baccarat_MC_Progression_Sim
This simulation is of 1000 shoes using the d’Alembert progression. As above, the player’s results along with the t-Win are both given. The rules are as follows:
- Base bet = $100, Player bets only.
- After a win (Player), decrease your bet by $100, but no lower than $100.
- After a loss (Banker), increase your bet by $100.
- After a Tie, no change in bet size.
- Reset the initial wager to $100 at the start of every shoe.
Here is the Excel spreadsheet: Baccarat_MC_dAlembert_Sim
If you like that sort of thing, here is a spreadsheet using the d’Alembert progression on roulette, wagering on “Even” only:
Videos about each of these spreadsheets (except for the d’Alembert) are available on my YouTube channel.