Beating Baccarat: Card Counting, End Plays and Perfect Play

Over and over there are claims that there are systems to beat baccarat. I’m happy to say it’s true, if by “beating” you mean winning $3.50 every week or so with a bankroll in the millions. The Tie bet is slightly more lucrative, you could win a full meal per week!

From card counting to end-playing the Tie bet to computer- perfect play, there was a lot to explore. Here is a summary of the articles I’ve written on the topic:

Articles on beating baccarat

Baccarat Card Counting Flimflam
A general-purpose article in which I mostly write about what is not true.

Baccarat Card Counting: Update #1
I give actual card counting systems that work against the Player and Banker bets, together with simulations showing win-rates.

Baccarat Tie Bet Flimflam
I discuss the work of John May and the possibility of an “end play” against the Tie Bet  An “end play” means a situation where the player has a huge edge over the Tie bet in the last few hands of the shoe.  It can happen!

Beating Baccarat
An article on computer-perfect play against baccarat, together with lots of fun computer analysis.

Beating the Baccarat Tie Bet
I give a card counting system that works to beat the Tie bet.  I was surprised at the time that no one else had ever carried out this analysis.  The fact is, the Tie bet is much easier to beat than either the Player or Banker bet.  But, you’ll still starve along the way.

Card Counting in Baccarat
A general purpose article about the futility of card counting as a method to beat baccarat.

Computer-Perfect Play against the Baccarat Tie Bet
No matter what counting system you use, you can never do better than computer-perfect play.  This article sets the upper limits on beating the Tie bet.  Lots of fun computer analysis.

Computer-Perfect Play against Baccarat
Likewise, no card counting system designed to beat the Player or Banker bet can ever do better than computer-perfect play.  Lots of fun computer simulations give upper bounds.

The World’s Greatest Baccarat Betting System
In short, use a computer after each hand to see which bet has the lowest house edge (Player, Banker, Tie) and make that bet. This post gives an upper bound on the edge from perfect play.

The World’s Greatest Baccarat Player
Only make a bet (Player, Banker, Tie) when a computer shows you have the edge on that bet, based on the cards that have been played.  How does $1.58 per shoe (based on $1000 wagers) sound?

 

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